An election predictor with a near-perfect record gives a major clue about his choice for 2024

A history professor whose formula has successfully predicted the outcome of all but one presidential election since 1984 has indicated that President Joe Biden is on course to win in 2024.

Allan Lichtmanwho has taught at American University for five decades, uses a system of 13 White House “keys” to make his call.

In a recent interview with the Guardian, Lichtman noted that Biden already had two keys under his belt: the key to the mandate and the key to the contest, having faced no serious contenders for the incumbent party’s nomination.

“That’s two keys from the top. This means that six more keys would have to fall to predict his defeat. A lot of things would have to go wrong for Biden to lose,” Lichtman said.

He will likely make his final prediction in August, according to the Guardian.

Other keys, structured as true or false questions, include whether or not the incumbent has been tainted by a major scandal, whether there has been social unrest during his or her term, whether the incumbent has won any major military successes or failures, and whether the candidate candidate is charismatic or a national hero.

The only blemish on Lichtman’s record dates back to 2000, when he predicted that Al Gore would defeat George W. Bush.

But Lichtman says that decision was nevertheless correct, since Gore won the popular vote. He claims that Gore would have won the election if he had not been wronged in Florida, which Bush won by a razor-thin margin, sparking a dispute over the recount and a highly controversial Supreme Court decision.

He was among the select few who predicted former President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016.

He noted, in his Guardian interview, that his system is “robust” because it is based in history – and that unprecedented events are happening now.

“But it is always possible that a sufficiently cataclysmic event could occur outside the scope of the keys that could affect the elections and here we have, for the first time, not only a former president but a major party candidate participating to a trial and who He knows that if he is convicted – and there is a good chance that he will be – it could confuse things, ”he said.

A national poll shared by CNN on Sunday shows Trump leading Biden by six percentage points, although he is currently on criminal trial and faces felony charges in three other indictments.

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