This is the moment that many of us have been warning about for so long. After years of shameful U.S. obsequiousness toward Iran, this emboldened theocratic pariah launched an attack on Israel, threatening to drag us into war.
Hostilities are still taking place in their full extent, but two conclusions are certain. First, it is the culmination of years of American appeasement. Second, it carries the risk of escalation into a global conflict that would involve Britain. In fact, to this we can add a third: If intelligence assessments of Iran’s nuclear program are wrong and the regime already has an operational warhead, all bets are off.
It is easier to contemplate how things might escalate than to find the narrow path to lasting peace. For example: Iran is joined by the fearsome Hezbollah and its other proxies in the war, overwhelming Israeli air defenses with swarms of drones, then with missiles. Houthi rockets block the Red Sea, destabilizing the global economy.
As America, Britain and other democracies send forces to the Eastern Mediterranean, China attacks Taiwan, forcing the White House to divert resources to the Indo-Pacific. Seeing an opening, Putin attacks Estonia, a NATO state, and fires missiles at London. Next steps could include nuclear warheads and North Korea.
How would Britain fare? Look at us. Depleted armed forces, ammunition reserves for a few weeks at best, Trident missiles falling into the sea during the last test, a £3 billion aircraft carrier with a rusty propeller and a company that, for decades, deliberately undermined his own patriotism.
The Secretary of Defense’s warning in January that we were living in a “pre-war world” had little effect on our decadent, peace-fattening public. At the march in London next week for Gaza, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear a new slogan: “Iran, Iran, make us proud.” Very soon our self-righteous dithering about Israeli self-defense will give way to panic as we feel the heat ourselves.
Speaking of decadence – of naivety and sheer incompetence – this crisis was facilitated by Joe Biden. His administration’s attitude toward Tehran has been one of abject appeasement. And in the face of interlocking adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran, appeasing one of them emboldens them all.
The West’s only weapon against the Iranians is economic. But as Rich Goldberg, former director for countering Iranian weapons of mass destruction at the White House National Security Council, noted, the Biden administration has undermined its own sanctions, releasing $16 billion in frozen funds in Tehran before October 7.
This considerable sum included $6 billion intended to secure the release of five American captives in September, a historic ransom that could only have encouraged the taking of more hostages. The deal escaped Congressional oversight by being rushed through during the summer recess. Does anyone believe that American efforts to direct this money to humanitarian purposes have been successful?
It seems absurd, but the State Department has also turned a blind eye to Iranian oil sales to China, allowing Tehran to export more than a million barrels per day, and has allowed Iraq to exchange oil for Iranian gas. These economic sweeteners began as part of a failed effort to revive Barack Obama’s nuclear deal, from which Donald Trump withdrew in 2018 in favor of “maximum pressure.”
The talks, led by the ultra-conciliatory Robert Malley, were dismal. The Americans were so lenient that British negotiators had to toughen things up, a diplomat involved in the negotiations told me. In this case, the Iranians were simply playing for time while accelerating towards a bomb. All crucial milestones, including enrichment to 20 percent, then to 60 percent, etc., were achieved in this period of hesitation. It is now believed that it will take only a week for Tehran to have enough nuclear material for a nuclear warhead. This could be weaponized within months.
To achieve this, with the world’s eyes on Gaza, the ayatollahs built an underground facility at Natanz deep enough to evade any Western air strike. A bomb alone won’t destroy the world, but the clock says one minute to midnight. Is it finally about to ring?
The heart of the problem is that the West has no theory of mind about the Iranian regime. Our diplomatic class projects the principle of enlightened self-interest onto the ayatollahs, when in reality, despite their sophisticated strategy, they are motivated by religious fanaticism.
As anyone trained in the regime’s schools will confirm, they believe that an apocalyptic war will herald the return of a messianic figure called the Mahdi. Alongside 313 of his most loyal fighters, he will conquer the world and usher in a new era. The regime’s end-times strategy involves three components: ballistic missiles, proxy militias, and nuclear weapons. Israel is the target.
We are also in the firing line. There have been at least 25 foiled Iranian assassination attempts in Britain over the past two years. Last month, an Iranian dissident journalist was stabbed in London in a suspected regime attack. A security official told me that of all the threats our country faced, it was Iran that kept it up at night.
It is too late to demand that Britain rearm. It is too late for Americans to get tough. It’s the war. We are who we are and we must muster our courage.
Jake Wallis Simons is the author of “Israelophobia”
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