The rise in American prices will weaken the global economy and increase inflation this year, according to projections that will be published next week by the International Monetary Fund.
IMF’s general manager Kristalina Georgieva said Thursday that the Trump Administration of the Functions had caused an increase in global uncertainty. Import taxes will slow global growth, but will not cause a global recession, she added. The details of the IMF perspectives will be issued on Tuesday.
The resilience of the global economy is tested “by restarting the global trade system” which threatens to cause turbulence in the financial markets, said Georgieva.
This turbulence was playing on the financial markets For weeks, especially in Wall Street, which has experienced wild up -to -date wild oscillations and often, even from an hour to hours.
The head of the IMF also echoes certain concerns of the Trump administration. She has called on countries to reduce their prices and reduce other obstacles to trade, a process that she said had stopped in the last decade after having made regular progress for many years after the Second World War.
“Trade distortions – pricing and non -caritales – have fed negative perceptions of a multilateral system that cannot be provided level field,” she said. “This feeling of injustice in certain places nourishes the story: we play according to the rules while others play the system without penalty.”
Georgieva added that prices cause uncertainty, which can be expensive. Due to the complexity of supply chains, the cost of a single article can be affected by prices in dozens of countries, she said.
The increase in commercial barriers also tends to have an impact immediately on growth, and although it can lead to more interior production, which takes time to implement, she added.
In its most recent projections issued in JanuaryThe IMF provides that the global economy is increasing nominally more quickly and that inflation is decreasing, although it has warned that the prospects were darken by President Donald Trump’s policies, including tax reductions and the increase in foreign import prices.
The Washington -based loan agency said at the time that it expected the world economy to increase 3.3% this year and next year, compared to 3.2% in 2024.
Global inflation, which had jumped after the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted global supply chains and caused higher prices and prices, was to go from 5.7% in 2024 to 4.2% this year and 3.5% in 2026.
However, in a blog post that accompanied these projections, the chief economist of the fund, Pierre-Olivier Gourchas, wrote that the policies that Trump promised to introduce “are likely to push higher inflation”.
These January forecasts should change – perhaps significantly – as Trump’s trade war has increased in recent months, In particular with the largest trading partner in the United States, China.
Trump has Pause or pulled back On many of its pricing threats – leading to more volatility on the stock market – but was in a tit -tray Battle price with China And has shown no signs of decline. Whenever Trump has raised prices on China, Beijing retaliated with prices on American imports.
The IMF is an organization of loans at 191 nations which strives to promote economic growth and financial stability and to reduce global poverty.
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The commercial writer AP Matt Ott contributed.
