By dasha litvinova
Tallinn, Estonie (AP) – The discussions took place in a room adorned with the Kremlin, on the polished marble of the Saint -Pierre basilica and in a disputed session in the oval office of the White House.
What has emerged so far from the effort led by Washington to put an end to the war in Ukraine suggests an agreement that seems likely to be favorable to Russia: President Donald Trump has strongly reprimanded Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, echoed the Kremlin discussion points, and indicated that Kyiv could have controlled the territory and Kremlin. In addition, he embarked on a rapprochement with Moscow which was unthinkable months ago.
More recently, Trump has offered mixed signals – publications on social networks that perhaps Russian President Vladimir Putin are leading it – and an agreement has not yet materialized.
While the optics have so far been in favor of the Kremlin, no proposal that has been advanced has been cemented.
And Wednesday, Washington and kyiv signed an agreement granting American access to the vast mineral resources of Ukraine which could allow continuous military aid to the country under the ongoing attacks of Russia.
Zelenskyy said Thursday that the agreement was the first result of his “really historic” meeting with Trump at the Vatican before the funeral of Pope Francis.
Dialogue and aligned vision
A gain for the Kremlin is that Washington speaks again in Moscow after years of extremely tense links after his invasion of Ukraine in 2022 – and not only on war, said Nikolay Petrov, principal researcher with the new reflection group of the Center for Eurasian Strategies.
Russian officials and the state media from the start of discussions with Trump officials sought to emphasize that Ukraine was only one element of the vast agenda of the “two superpowers”. Trump and Putin spoke in March of Ukraine but also of the Middle East, stopping the proliferation of strategic weapons and even the organization of hockey games between countries.
Russia’s main state television channel reported that the meeting between Putin and Trump’s envoy, Steve-Witkoff, has shown that Moscow and Washington were building together “a new structure in the world”.
In this sense, “Putin has already been part of what he was looking for” – Russia’s optics as a country with the United States, said Petrov.
Trump said Crimea, the Ukrainian Peninsula Moscow, was annexed illegal in 2014, “will remain with Russia”, and the described of a peace proposal that his team would have presented in Kyiv last month, Russia apparently included keeping control of other occupied Ukrainian territories. Trump, who had a controversial meeting with Zelenskyy in the oval office on February 28, denounced him for having publicly rejected the idea of giving up land, and also said that kyiv was unlikely to join NATO.
All these elements reflect the long -standing positions of Moscow, and the echo of Trump suggested that the vision of his administration was aligned with that of the Kremlin.
Trump also highlights more pressure on kyiv than Moscow by trying to reach a peace agreement and seems eager to return to a more normal relationship with Russia and its “great commercial opportunities”, said Sam Greene of King’s College in London.
“Is there a part of that that doesn’t look like a victory for Russia? No,” added Greene.
So far, it only speaks
But so far, all of this has only remained rhetoric, with terms of a possible regulation still “in the air”, explains Sergey Radchenko, historian and professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
In addition, there are still requests from Russia and Ukraine who would be difficult to reconcile in any type of peace regulation.
Ukraine refuses to give up all land and wishes solid security guarantees against future aggression, perhaps involving a contingent of peacekeepers-something that a handful of European nations have discussed and Russia publicly rejects as a non-starter.
Russia, in turn, requires that it retains the territory it has seized as well as the NATO subscription for Ukraine. He also wants Kyiv “demilitarize” or considerably reduces his armed force.
Radchenko sees the latter as a major point of snack in peace, because a strong and viable army is important for Ukraine to defend himself.
“If there are restrictions on the types of weapons that Ukraine can receive (from the West) or the size of the army, it will be very difficult to bring them to accept this type of agreement,” he said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has apparently increased the challenges this week saying that international recognition of Ukraine’s annexed regions was “imperative” for a peace agreement.
Reaching this is not clear, given that dozens of countries have criticized annexions as violating international law.
What if the United States is moving away?
Some analysts believe that it is in Putin’s interest to prolong the war and continue to win on the battlefield.
Trump, Vice-President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio threatened to wash his hands with the peace effort if there is no progress soon.
Putin, in an apparent gesture of the desire to continue to speak, announced this week a ceasefire of 72 hours from May 8 for the festival of the victory of Russia which marks the defeat of Nazi Germany during the Second World War.
Zelenskyy rejected the gesture as a new attempt by Putin to “manipulate” to launch along the United States, saying that a cease-fire should start immediately and last longer.
Greene noted that the Russian and the Russian markets have recently visited the expectations of a peace agreement and that American companies and investors are coming back, “and there may be a price to pay” to withdraw the treadmill.
The wider question is what is happening on the battlefield if the Trump administration withdraws from the peace effort.
“When the Trump administration says they are moving away from it, we don’t know what it means. Does that mean that they are moving away from negotiations and continue to support Ukraine? ” Said Greene.
Greene says that Ukraine probably does not seem confident that the United States that fell from the process means that Washington will continue to support kyiv, adding that Russia may not be sure of the Trump administration which ends the aid.
“I think it is very difficult for the Kremlin to calculate the risks of dragging this,” he said.
And the American secretary of the Treasury, Sctott Bessent, said that the mineral agreement “clearly points out to Russia that the Trump administration has engaged in a peace process centered on a free, sovereign and long -term ukraine.”
Many depends on the question of whether Europe can intensify and fill the gaps in American aid.
If Trump moves away from the peace effort and still pursues normalization relations with Russia, raising the sanctions, “this is equivalent to a major breakthrough” for Putin, but it is not a fact, says Radchenko.
It would be a difficult battle for Trump because “there are a lot of sanctions at Congress which are based on war in Ukraine,” notes Greene.
Originally published:
California Daily Newspapers