Almost a billion tonnes of carbon emissions per year could be reduced by Democrats’ climate provisions, analysis finds

That would be comparable to taking all passenger vehicles off the road, or Texas and Florida’s annual greenhouse gas emissions combined, according to the analysis.

“This is a really big deal,” Rhodium Group Chairman John Larsen told CNN. “It would be the biggest step the federal government has ever taken to tackle climate change.”

Rhodium’s results are consistent with other analyzes which have shown that the largest reductions would come from a combination of Democrats’ clean electricity program and tax credits for clean energy, such as wind and solar.

Of the six measures analyzed by the group, Rhodium estimated that a combination of the clean electricity program, tax credits and financing for rural electricity cooperatives would have the greatest impact on US emissions, accounting for up to 715 million tonnes per year.

The House Energy and Commerce Committee has structured its clean electricity program so that utilities are eligible for federal subsidies if they increase the amount of clean electricity delivered to customers by 4% from the previous year. The subsidy would be $ 150 for each megawatt hour of clean electricity above 1.5% of the previous year’s clean electricity.

Rhodium’s analysis found that if utilities hit this minimum increase each year, the power sector would reach a clean share of 73% by 2030, just short of President Joe Biden’s target of 80%.

“There is no reason a public service cannot be paid to be successful,” Larsen told CNN. “If I do better than 4% a year, you could actually get paid even more to do the right thing. I think that between tax credits and [clean electricity program], it is obvious for public services to achieve these objectives. ”

All of these programs combined could significantly reduce U.S. emissions, but Larsen told CNN it was too early to say for sure whether the total budget will meet Biden’s decarbonization target of 50% to 52% below levels of. 2005 by 2030.

Rhodium has estimated that there is a gap of approximately 1.7 billion to 2.3 billion tonnes between where greenhouse gas emissions will be below the current U.S. trajectory and where they should be to meet Biden’s 2030 target.

“We estimate this could close about half of the gap between where the United States is likely to be and where it needs to be to hit the target,” Larsen told CNN, adding that the gap could narrow if Congress increases its investments further.

Climate provisions account for about a fifth of the global budget bill of $ 3.5 trillion, environmental groups have estimated. The clean electricity program costs about $ 150 billion over 10 years, while clean energy tax credits are worth about $ 253 billion over the next decade.

Rhodium’s analysis also included a $ 7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, a methane emissions levy and more funding for agriculture and forestry programs that help remove carbon from the atmosphere.


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