The impending resolution of the Roki Sasaki contest has international baseball scouts and executives preparing for unusual activity.
“It could get crazy,” one experienced international evaluator said this week.
Sasaki, the highly sought-after 23-year-old Japanese pitcher, has shaken up the international market. Sasaki can only be signed through each team’s international bonus pools, which range from approximately $5.1 million to $7.5 million. The MLB international signing period opens each year on January 15. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, said he expects his client to sign at some point between then and Jan. 23, when Sasaki’s negotiating window ends.
The Padres, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Giants and Rangers are among the teams reportedly receiving an in-person meeting, with the Toronto Blue Jays joining that list last week. But the consequences of Sasaki’s decision will affect the entire international market.
The wait pushes clubs to maneuver in atypical ways as signing day approaches, either by delaying commitments with other prospects, backing out of major deals altogether or weighing deals involving international cash.
The Padres have informed some players expected to be in their next signing class that they are free to pursue other deals, league sources said. The Dodgers have asked players to consider signing in next year’s promotion if the team lands Sasaki and cannot acquire enough international bonus money via trade to honor their handle agreements. hand, league sources said. (Sources said the Padres have had similar conversations with prospects about waiting until 2026.) That hasn’t stopped turnover within Los Angeles’ signing class. Dominican shortstop prospect Darell Morel was close to signing with the Dodgers once the 2025 international signing period opened this week, but decided Friday to sign with the Pirates for around $1.8 million , league sources confirmed. Baseball America was the first to report Morel’s change of plans, noting that he is expected to receive double the amount of money he would have received from Los Angeles.
It is possible that other clubs have acted similarly – or will soon.
“It’s absolutely insane right now to try to figure out who is actually available,” one international official said. “It’s hard to say. It’s a balance between recognizing what offers are in place, but also not wanting to miss out if someone is actually available. Additionally, agents are also taking advantage of the situation to get more money with a new club than the one they initially agreed with. There have also been more dialogues on international monetary exchanges. …It’s a lot.
International prospects cannot officially join MLB organizations until they are eligible to sign, but deals are made between teenagers and clubs years in advance. Such agreements are technically prohibited and non-binding. But that’s why every year, many 16- and 17-year-old players, many from Latin America, end up signing with teams at the earliest possible date. So the reality is that teams have less money than the amount in their bonus pools.
Teams bidding on Sasaki are hoping he arrives ready to be a front-line starter, and as such, he projects to reach the major leagues much sooner than any prospect with a pre-existing verbal commitment with a club. Therefore, organizations would consider its addition as a special opportunity.
Sasaki was posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball last month. Sasaki could have waited until he was 25 to sign for more money and not be limited by international bonus allocations. That’s what Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed for $325 million last winter, did. Sasaki didn’t want to wait for a chance to play in MLB, however.
For over a year, some teams have been preparing for the possibility that Sasaki would be available. When rumors of the possibility gained momentum, clubs, including the Dodgers, backed away from deals with players from previous classes, unsure whether Sasaki would be part of the 2024 signing period or the period signing date of 2025, league sources said. This is partly why the Dodgers found themselves with a surplus of unused bonuses during the 2024 signing period.
In last year’s signing class, the Padres committed their money to shortstop Leodalis De Vries, widely considered the top international prospect in 2024. For that span, however, the Padres signed fewer deals than they normally would because of Sasaki’s presence on the market, league sources said.
The Padres have a bonus pool of $6,261,000 this year, while the Dodgers have a bonus of $5,146,200. Some international executives at other clubs have suggested the Sasaki fallout could end up being anti-climatic since the Padres and Dodgers, considered the right-hander’s favorites, would each have at least a few million dollars without breaking any deals. Still, it all depends on what Sasaki is willing to accept from a club (Wolfe declined to answer specific questions regarding financial figures during a recent video conference with reporters).
Given the bonus pool restrictions, money won’t be the determining factor in Sasaki’s choice, but he is nonetheless an interesting element in the process, especially since his team in Japan is compensated via bonus fees. publication.
“You assume they’re going to give him all the freight,” said an executive familiar with the international market who requested anonymity to speak freely. “I don’t think that’s necessarily what’s happening. I think there’s a world where Sasaki says, “Hey, I’m going to make enough money from sponsorships and stuff that the difference in my world is between $2.5 million or $3 million and $5 million.” dollars isn’t that big.” There is a scenario where he does not sign for the entire bonus pool allocation.
“That being said, Joel Wolfe is an agent. His team in Japan also makes money from this deal. They will collect the entire bonus pool. That would be my guess. It is not impossible that he would accept less. But I think it’s more realistic for him to take someone’s entire bonus.”
Thus, clubs have the possibility of managing their commitments and their liquidity.
From a club’s perspective, telling players with verbal agreements that they can look elsewhere until the Sasaki situation is resolved could be seen as an act of transparency. Essentially, clubs like the Padres are telling prospects to wait a few days before signing or wait completely until the signing period of 2026. The problem is, it’s already very late. While it’s not uncommon for teams to cut deals with players, generally speaking, if a deal exists this late in the process and signing day is less than a week away, a signing is expected.
If such deals are broken, players will likely have to accept reduced bonuses from other teams, if they can find openings, as shown Athletics» Ken Rosenthal has already written. This could create a ripple effect if players signed with new clubs who then had to break agreements they had previously made in order to incorporate the new deals into their bonus pool.
“There are probably a handful of teams that have money, that have budgeted and planned to participate in this process,” said the executive familiar with the international market. “They closely monitor the favorites and their players. Now they’re not going to spot them. They are not going to monitor these players. But they are attentive. And agents and trainers aren’t stupid either. They are aware that their commitments are heavily compromised with some of the teams reported to be on Sasaki’s list.
One way to add more money to the international bonus pool is through trading. A club can acquire 60 percent of its original pool, but can only transact in increments of $250,000 ($250,000, $500,000, $750,000, etc.), unless it does not exchanges its entire pool. Teams can only make transactions during the signing period to which the pool space applies, so no transactions involving international cash can be made before January 15.
“We are sitting quietly, waiting for teams to call us, because we have international money that we would be happy to exchange, but we value that money,” said another executive familiar with the international market who required anonymity to express oneself freely. “If we trade him to you for Sasaki, that should yield some sort of return with legitimate value.”
(Photo: Éric Espada / Getty Images)
