A top analyst says China plays a “key role” in the skyrocketing price of gold, and he has the data to prove it.

“China is playing a key role in the current rise in gold prices due to central bank buying, arbitrage and increased demand for junk and safe haven assets among Chinese households,” Slok wrote in his Tuesday article. Daily spark, including four charts that prove his point. He included a fifth showing that “increased business uncertainty in the United States is also driving up gold prices.”

Slok’s comments came with the kind of odd timing familiar to market watchers: the morning of a sell-off against a rising dollar that marked gold’s biggest fall in 12 years, down as much as 6.3% from the previous day’s high of $4,381.52 an ounce. “It is during corrections that the true strength of a market is revealed, and this time should be no different,” Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank AS, told Bloomberg of the sudden cooling. Gold was down 4.78% at $4,151.20 an ounce as of 12:10 p.m. ET, still up more than 55% year to date.

Gold’s 50% rise in 2025 marked a watershed moment: it crossed the $4,000-an-ounce threshold after President Donald Trump enacted 100% tariffs on China, severely disrupting global trade and eroding confidence in the greenback. As the dollar depreciates and U.S. stocks collapse, gold shines brighter and brighter as a safe asset. Veteran analyst Ed Yardeni predicts a price of $5,000 for 2026 and up to $10,000 by 2028 if current trends persist – citing the “depreciation trade” that favors gold and Bitcoin when fiat currencies risk inflation and systemic instability.

Other reports add evidence to Slok’s findings. The People’s Bank of China has been a relentless buyer of gold, marking its 11th consecutive monthly purchase in September, according to commodities news site Kitco. China’s officially declared reserves reached 2,264 tonnes in mid-2025, but industry consensus suggests actual reserves could be even higher due to under-reporting – a tactic often used to gain strategic advantage. This central bank purchase is not just a statistical curiosity; it establishes a floor price that incentivizes institutional and private investors to follow suit, thereby strengthening demand cycles.​

Beyond official reserves, Chinese consumers are fueling the recovery. Gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange surged in September, reaching a monthly total of 118 tonnes, up month-on-month and year-on-year. Chinese gold ETFs saw net inflows in September, and gold futures trading volumes increased significantly, indicating a powerful combination of household safe-haven demand and speculative trading within China itself. This growing involvement of retail investors amplifies China’s effect on global gold prices.​

Slok cites the China Financial Futures Exchange to report that the level of gold stocks in China has soared throughout 2025, and Bloomberg data shows that household demand for gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is also on the rise. This indicates that well beyond what the People’s Bank of China is doing, Chinese households are driving significant activity as the US-China trade war rages on. Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet soon. Xi will impose new restrictions on access to rare earths and Trump will threaten new 100% tariffs in response – before appearing to back down.

Global Ripple Effects: Uncertainty in the United States and Beyond

Although Chinese purchases are the dominant catalyst, increased business uncertainty in the United States has added fuel to the fire. As economic volatility and geopolitical risk increase – exacerbated by US-China trade tensions, dollar depreciation and falling interest rates – US investors have joined the trend into gold, driving prices even higher. Leading institutions including Goldman Sachs have raised their forecasts for gold, projecting prices as high as $4,900 an ounce for December 2026, well above current record levels. When analysts combine these factors with Slok’s data, the result is compelling: gold movements in China are the keystone, but the effect is global.

Slok’s analysis echoes observations from Lina Thomas, a commodities strategist at Goldman Sachs, and Canadian businessman and legendary gold investor Pierre Lassonde, who emphasized earlier this month that gold’s current rally is based on fundamentals and not hype. Thomas pointed out that economic instability – particularly uncertainty induced by tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar – caused gold to rise 65% in 2025, reaching a staggering price of $4,242 per ounce. As the United States and China grapple with a trade standoff, central banks and private investors are diversifying away from the dollar, further increasing demand for gold.

Thomas and Lassonde drew explicit parallels to the 1970s, when Nixon’s abrupt end to the gold standard and subsequent fiscal turmoil caused gold prices to accelerate more than 2,300 percent over the decade. Lassonde describes the current moment as “the current 1976-equivalent year of this four-year bull market,” suggesting the recovery could last for years to come.

Even traditional gold skeptics have joined the rush. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, long skeptical of the merits of gold, admitted as much in a conversation with Fortune Editor Alyson Shontell said, “This is one of the few times in my life where it’s semi-rational to have this in your portfolio” – a marked shift driven by the kind of global uncertainty and market collapse also evident in Slok’s analysis.

Ken Griffin, CEO of Citadel and founder of the billionaire hedge fund, strikes a similar tone as Dimon, but he’s not happy about it. “I now view gold as a safe-haven asset, the same way the dollar was once viewed. That’s what really concerns me,” Griffin told Bloomberg earlier this month.

Another hedge fund billionaire, Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio, said earlier this month that investors should invest 15% of their portfolio in gold, calling it a “very great diversification tool.” China appears to agree.

(This report has been updated to include Tuesday’s trading data on gold’s biggest decline in more than a decade.