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A Short-Term Flaw in USDJPY’s Bullish Armor, but Work to Be Done Soon


USDJPY has seen some selling, but there is still work to be done.

You have to scan the 5 minute chart to find it, but for traders it showed a modest win for sellers.

Specifically, the pair moved below the 100 moving bar on the 5-minute chart at 144.43. It also fell below the 38.2 to 50% of the last leg higher today. This is between 144.36 and 144.512. The low price reached 144.22.

Staying below the 144.513 area gives sellers some SHORT TERM comfort. On the downside, if the price can break below the 144.22 level, the 200-bar MA at 143.995 would be the next target to hit and cross. The price should stay below this MA level to give sellers a little more comfort.

That said, buyers are still in firm control. Looking at the hourly chart, the 38.2% of the current range sits at 144.097. The 50% of the day’s range is 143.822. Drop below these would be the next key targets. Without it, and are the sellers winners? No.

But in the short term, a small win for the sellers on the 5 minute chart.

USDJPY on the hourly chart

What helps is that yields are lower in the United States. The 10-year is down -6.5 bps.

Also stocks are recovering a bit. The Nasdaq is up 106 points now and is looking to break a 7-day decline.

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