A rare winter storm will threaten North Florida and beyond with ice and snow. What you need to know

JACKSONVILLE, FL – A rare winter storm is expected to impact northern Florida and southern Georgia Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and will bring a risk of icy and even snow to the region.

The greatest threat will be ice formation Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning, creating hazardous travel conditions from west Jacksonville and points north and west.

Here is the breakdown:

• While Georgia and the Florida Panhandle will see snow sticking to the ground, there are unlikely to be snowflakes in Jacksonville.

• A bigger concern for Northeast Florida is freezing rain, starting Tuesday evening.

• Wednesday morning could be dangerous for drivers anywhere except near the river or east of the St. Johns River to the coast, where ice is less likely on the roads.

Freezing rain is expected to begin in southeast Georgia Tuesday afternoon before moving south toward northeast Florida after midnight Tuesday and persisting through mid-morning Wednesday.

This poses a significant risk for ice accumulation, especially along and north of Interstate 10 toward Lake City, Macclenny, Homerville, Waycross and Jesup.

Areas along the St. John River and down to the beaches should not be at risk of ice, as coastal winds help buffer the freeze.

Although ice is the main concern in Northeast Florida, snow may also target Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, with accumulation of over an inch or more on the ground.

Areas along and north of Waycross in southeast Georgia have a medium (40-50%) chance of seeing up to 1 inch of snow.

There is also a small risk (5-15%) of snowfall of up to 3 inches north and northwest of Waycross, which could lead to major impacts.

A winter storm warning is in effect for snow and freezing rain Tuesday evening until 1 p.m. Wednesday, where areas of the heaviest winter precipitation are targeting southeast Georgia’s interior, the River Valley. Suwanee River and near Florida’s I-10 corridor.

The depth of the cold above the ground is why snow is unlikely in Jacksonville.

For Jacksonville to experience snow, a unique and precise combination of weather factors would have to converge – which is far from the case.

For now, the air above the ground in Jacksonville doesn’t appear cold enough for snow, although the surface will be frozen. This vertical atmospheric profile could result in sleet or freezing rain around Duval, Nassau and counties west along I-10.

The graph below is a cross-section of the atmosphere over time with the forecast starting Monday on the left and ending Sunday on the right. White areas represent subzero temperatures in the air column above Jacksonville. Frigid air appears Wednesday morning at the surface, but because the air does not freeze aloft, snow is unlikely.

Compared to Waycross, you can see that the atmospheric sounding of the air is much colder with frost (white areas) extending from the ground to the top of the map representing the frigid air for all the snow.

Key messages:

• The increasing likelihood of snow and freezing rain will impact the watch area Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday.

• The potential for freezing rain is highest along/north of I-10 toward Homerville-Waycross-Jesup.

• Snow potential is highest north of Waycross.

• Patches of ice on roads are possible in southeast Georgia and parts of northeast Florida early Wednesday morning.

• Nighttime frosts and dangerous wind chills are expected through Thursday.

Safety measures:

• Ice accumulation could cause significant power outages Tuesday evening. Be sure to stock winter emergency supply kits for homes and vehicles.

Consider adjusting your travel plans to stay off the roads after 9 p.m. Tuesday through Wednesday morning.