Are we finally beyond the peak of fear regarding the whole Israel-Iran episode? It still depends but this weekend was a good start. I mean, the status quo in the region has definitely changed from before and we are now in a new geopolitical regime. But as Iran downplays any immediate escalation, perhaps markets could learn to adapt more quickly and breathe easier – at least for now.
The risk suggests some early optimism in broader markets. Gold is down 0.8% at $2,370, while oil is also down 0.6% at $81.55 currently. Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures are up 0.2%, while the Aussie and Kiwi maintain slight gains in the major currency space. It’s still relatively early in the week to call anything, but for now we’re seeing calmer heads.
On the contrary, American stocks will be one to watch in the days to come. The last time the S&P 500 closed lower in six consecutive sessions was in September 2022. The next day, it rebounded by almost 2%. The chart also shows that we could be close to a key threshold at which buyers could take a position. The 100-day moving average (red line) gets closer every day:
S&P 500 Index daily chart
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