A battle of anti-Western extremists

Iran is holding snap elections on June 28 after the sudden death of former Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash. But the vote is neither free nor likely to bring significant change to the country, analysts say.

The election will take place against a backdrop of Iran’s struggling economy, widespread popular discontent and crackdown on dissent. The county is also grappling with high inflation, heavy Western sanctions, growing tensions with the United States, an acceleration of Iranian nuclear enrichment and the war between Israel and Hamas.

Iran’s ultra-conservative Guardian Council, which ultimately decides who is allowed to participate in the vote, has approved a list of six presidential candidates. Most are hardliners who take strong anti-Western positions, with one candidate representing the reformist camp. The women who registered as candidates were all disqualified by the Council.

“Six of the 80 candidates passed the Guardian Council’s selection process. Of these six, five are genuine hardliners and one is a token reformist,” Behnam ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation, told CNBC for the defense of democracies.

He described Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei⁠, as the country’s “only important ‘voter.’

He “seeks continuity, not change,” Ben Taleblu said, adding that half of the approved candidates have been sanctioned by Western governments.

For some Iran observers, the upcoming elections represent an opportunity for the country’s government to “correct course” or work to rebuild its relations with much of the Iranian population and improve its image.

“This is especially true in the wake of protests, repression and general growing public discontent, which has almost become a hallmark of Raisi’s tenure. The leaders here had…the opportunity to create at least a semblance of competitive elections,” he added. ” said Nader Itayim, Gulf editor for the Middle East at Argus Media.

But with Sunday’s announcement of approved candidates, “those hopes have been largely dashed,” he said. “In reality, it’s always the hard-liners who lose.”

Elected in the summer of 2021 amid the lowest turnout in a presidential election since the founding of the Islamic Republic in 1979, Raisi was a radical right-winger seen as a potential successor to the Islamic Republic’s aging supreme leader, Khamenei. .

Raisi, 63, was a harsh critic of the West, harshly cracking down on the protest movement that swept the country after the death of a young Iranian Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, while in the custody of US police. Iranian morals in September 2022. Hundreds of people were killed during the crackdown.

Low turnout is expected again as many Iranians consider boycotting the vote, angry at a system they see as rigged and ineffective in improving their lives amid an economic crisis.

In a statement, the Union for the Secular Republic and Human Rights in Iran called for an “active boycott” of the “presidential elections”.

Iranian administrations have often blamed the country’s difficulties on the oppression of sanctions imposed by the United States.

This comes after voter turnout in Iran’s March parliamentary elections was also the lowest for a legislative election in the Islamic Republic’s history, at 41 percent.

As Khamenei and other leaders urge the public to vote, demonstrating legitimacy through participation no longer appears to be a major concern for the Islamic Republic, says Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. .

“The Islamic Republic recognizes that there is a huge gap in expectations and demands between the system and its people, there is a gap in social liberalization, economic trajectory and political opportunities that the system clearly recognizes that “he can’t fill it – so he’s no longer prioritizing his traditional electoral legitimacy, as he did in previous elections,” she said.

“The government is trying to deliver a competitive election, but it has clearly selected a slate of candidates favoring a range of conservatives, all to ensure the outcome is relatively predictable.”

Itayim, from the Middle East Gulf, agrees. “If the last election showed us anything, it’s that leaders don’t care that much about turnout,” he said.

“There should be a higher turnout, but if it doesn’t happen, that’s not a problem. Ultimately, it seems like they’re comfortable enough with the way things are going unfolding and that they feel no imminent threat to their grip on power growing discontent, protests, etc.

Iranians who decide to vote will go to the polls on June 28, with the possibility of a second round if the result is very close.

The 2021 presidential election was seen by many in Iran as having been staged to ensure the victory of Raisi, Khamenei’s protégé, Itayim said. And the 85-year-old supreme leader now seems more emboldened and self-confident than ever.

Khamenei “seems to be going down this path of consolidating power, within the hard-line camps, the conservative camps, almost no matter what,” Itayim said.

“From where I sit, given who’s running this time, the next election seems destined to take Iran even further down the same path.”