During his visit to Saudi Arabia, President Donald Trump signed what the White House described as “the biggest story for the defense of history”, estimated at nearly $ 142 billion, which will provide the kingdom “of ultramodern war equipment and services”. The offer, the final value of which can ultimately prove much less than $ 142 billion, should include C-130 Hercules Transport aircraft from Lockheed Martin and other unpertified missiles and radars. Neither the White House nor the officials of the administration have no longer provided details on the specific systems that the agreement may include, such as the advanced fighter Riyadh.
The two parties discussed a Saudi potential purchase of the F-35 Lightning II Furalth Strike Fighter and a qualitative military point from Israel reported Reuters on Tuesday. The Saudis are looking for the F-35 for years, because it is one of the best fighter planes in the world that could put the armed forces of the kingdom equally with Israel, the only country in the Middle East currently flying this fifth generation fighting aircraft. Washington is legally obliged to preserve the military advantage of Israel, among others, not selling military equipment to regional countries which are or more advanced than the arsenal of Israel. Unlike the neighboring United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia has not joined the Abraham agreements by normalizing links with Israel and refuses to do so in the midst of the current war in Gaza.
“I think that an F-35 agreement could be agreed even on the standardization of Israelis, even absent,” Rane Rane Rane Rane, Rane Insider, told Business Insider. “However, to proceed with the F-35 package, it would be necessary to be considerably demoted to preserve the qualitative military edge of Israel.”
“Such declarations could decrease the attractiveness of the overall sale for the Saudis.”
Israel has taken delivery of three F-35 in March, bringing his total strength to the fleet to 42. He will eventually feed 75. Washington may not agree to sell Riyadh a comparable number, and this can impose limits on their use.
“I don’t think the figures are sufficient alone, because the Israelis will be concerned that such systems can possibly find themselves in the hands of adversaries,” said Bohl. “On the contrary, I think we would probably see technical restrictions and final use requirements that would seriously limit the use of F-35 by the Saudis and reduce their capacities against the Israelis.”
The F-35i Adir of Israel is a unique version of the stealth aircraft that Israel modifies with indigenous weapons and systems. Consequently, the ADIR is undoubtedly already more advanced than any standard F-35A model, Saudi Arabia could acquire.
In the end, it is Iran Archi-Rival of Israel that could have more concerns about the perspective of the Saudi F-35.
Any acquisition of the F-35 could give Saudi Arabia the “ability to carry out deep strikes in Iran” of manifestly much more important than possible with their current F-15 Fleet of 4.5 generation non-furtive, noted Sébastien Roblin, a largely published military journalist. Such an acquisition could also “considerably improve” Saudi air power and allow Riyadh to participate in any American or Israeli bombing campaign against Iran.
“I can see such an acquisition affecting the perceived regional balance of power vis-à-vis Tehran,” Roblin told BI.
“That said, in a large -scale conflict, questions would arise about the vulnerability of these planes to Iranian strikes when they landed,” Roblin said. “And if these countries could acquire enough F-35 with enough ammunition and bring together enough professionalism and support for assets to minimize the risk of combat losses.”
F-35 Lightning II Fighters entered service with the US Air Force in 2016. US Air Force Photo / Master SGT. Ben mota
Riyadh may not prioritize the acquisition of the F-35 and seek other advanced American weapons.
The United States is much more open to the export of advanced drones to the Middle East countries than a few years ago, when Washington has largely followed the limitations of scope and payload suggested by the missile technology control regime for exported systems.
Before Trump’s trip, Washington Green lit a potential MQ-9B drone sale in Qatar. General Atomics should offer Seagarardians in Saudi Arabia MQ-9B as part of a “huge” package.
“I think that the weakening of restrictions on the final use will certainly make Americans more eager to conclude agreements to sell their drones to the region,” said Bohl de Rane. “American drones will always have to compete with Turkish and Chinese drones that can be cheaper and have fewer attached political strings.”
When Washington previously refused requests from the Middle East of American advanced drones, China intervened and provided its drones throughout the region in the 2010s. In the 2020s, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates signed lucrative contracts with Turkey for its native drones Bayraktar.
“I would not expect a major increase in exports from American drones to the region at this stage, but rather so that they are part of the Drones Diversification Strategy in this region,” said Bohl. “Admittedly, there will be notable offers concluded in the years to come, but China and Turkey will continue to be great competitors in the drones arena in the Arab States of the Gulf.”
The White House mentioned that the $ 142 billion agreement includes “air and anti -missile defense”.
“If we examine recent trends, they should focus on aerial defenses, including deeper stocks of interceptor missiles and the diversification of air defenses to combat lower -end range threats as well as high -end,” said Roblin.
Saudi Arabia already exploits advanced missiles of the American air defense and the defense system of the high -end area area, which can target ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere. He completed his first components manufactured locally from this last system a few days before Trump’s visit. Riyadh can look for similar co -production agreements to help develop its national weapons industry.
“There is a need for long -distance precision weapons in the form of missiles and drones, which can be used without risking costly usual combat aircraft,” Roblin said. “There should be a parallel interest at sea, where we saw Ukraine and the Houthis successfully execute sea denial strategies, one that Iran could seek to imitate in the confined waters of the Gulf.”
“Thus, the homework of the Gulf Marines are to ensure that their ships have the sensors and self -defense weapons to deal with the threats of small boats and the cruise and ballistic missiles.”
Saudi Arabia has already taken measures to extend its navy with more advanced warships in recent years. Rane Bohl thinks that Trump could persuade the kingdom of “buying large tickets like warships” while trying to “revitalize the manufacturing sector” in the United States.
Only a fraction of this $ 142 billion agreement can lead to concluded transactions – as was the case with the series of letters of intent for $ 110 billion in arms sales that Trump signed with Riyadh in 2017.
“These transactions involve a huge defense sales option, but Trump will present them to his supporters as offers,” said Roblin. “Thus, Gulf States can offer Trump a large number as a political victory without having to pay anywhere near the whole bill.”
“For the 2017 Defense Agreement, by the following year, Riyadh would only have bought $ 14.5 billion out of $ 110 billion optional.”
Paul Iddon is an independent journalist and columnist who writes about developments, military affairs, politics and history of the Middle East. His articles appeared in a variety of publications focused on the region.
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