Canada elections: polls are tightening, but Carney’s Liberal Party still seems ready to win

While the ballot day in Canada is looming on Monday, support for the two main parties began to converge in the polls, but the race seems to remain the Liberal Party to lose.

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party now leads the conservative party from 42% to 39% on average, according to CBC Poll Tracker, a drop compared to the advance of almost seven percentage points that the Liberals had at the start of the campaign last month. Some polls show an even thinner advance, but the Liberal Party still seems ready to win, according to the pollsters.

“Due to the distribution of the vote nationwide, there is a little distortion, a bit like what you will see in the United States with the electoral college,” said Sébastien Dallaire, executive vice-president of eastern Canada to Leger, a large survey company.

But, he added, “even if the national vote should be linked, it would probably mean that the Liberals have gained more” seats in the House of Commons, allowing them to form a government and give Mr. Carney a complete mandate as Prime Minister.

Surveys could also underestimate national support for the Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, but this may not be enough to overcome the advantage of the Liberals.

The Conservative Party won the popular vote in the last two elections, but has always lost the liberals by two times. Conservatives can be well questioned at the national level, but still fail because their support tends to be concentrated in a smaller number of parliamentary districts.