In 2018, a study by the joint research center of the European Commission (JRC) painted a fairly disturbing table of a neighboring future with people who fight for access to water. According to the study, “the five most vulnerable hot spots included the Nile, the Ganges-Brahmaputra, the Indus, the Tiger-Euphrates and the Rivers of Colorado”.
The effects of climate change, combined with an ever -increasing number of people, should only increase competition for the rare resource, according to the study.
“The newspaper has highlighted several hot spots in the world where” hydro-political problems “are more likely to transform. Unsurprisingly, these are areas that have problems with access to fresh water and where a “transfrontal” exists.
Aquatic wars
According to experts, wars above oil shaped the history of the 20th century. However, most conflicts of the 21st century will be on the water.
“I ask (myself) if, in this third world war in the spot, that we live, do we not head towards a great world war for water?” The late Pope Francis would also have been quoted.
Water is vital for survival, preserving healthy ecosystems, socio-economic growth, energy, food, practically all aspects of life.
Concerns about the most precious natural resources have increased due to climate change and global warming. Given the value of the finite and non -substitutable natural resource, the Indus water Treaty takes on even more important importance.
For Pakistan (a downstream country) “It is the most important treaty, a question of life and death”, explains Himanshu Thakkar of the Southern Asian network on the dams, rivers and people.
After the horrible terrorist attack in Pahalgam on Tuesday, India suspended the treaty of six rivers in the Industry basin between the two countries on Wednesday.
According to the provisions of the treaty – which survived wars and decades of conflict and cross -border terrorism against India by Pakistan – all the water of the “eastern rivers” of the industrial system – Sutlej, Beas and Ravi – will be available for “the without restriction” of India.
Pakistan, on the other hand, will receive water from “Western rivers” – Industs, Jhelum and Chenab.
What’s going on now?
Thakkar says that the “strategic and symbolic” decision to suspend the TFI will give more options on how to use the waters of the industrial river system in the future.
To start, India can immediately stop sharing the flow / flood data with Pakistan.
The treaty requires that India sharing hydrological data with Pakistan. The data is crucial for the forecast of floods and the planning of irrigation, hydroelectricity, drinking water, etc.
He can also stop the visits of Pakistani officials in hydroelectric projects currently under construction in J&K – the Kishenganga Hep on Kishenganga, a tributary of Jhelum and the Ratle Hep on Chenab.
The two projects were a contention apple between the two countries. India is also looking for the “modification” of the treaty in mind for future needs.
Even if these are “river” projects generating electricity without hindering the natural flow, Pakistan is opposed to the two projects.
The suspension of the treaty may not have an immediate impact on the flow of water to Pakistan because India does not currently have the infrastructure to stop the flow or divert it for its own use. However, there are no more things to prevent it from planning in the future, say experts.
“India can create storage on Western rivers and also relaunch the Tulbul project, it can stop sharing data on the project and documents, rinsing at any time instead of designated months,” explains Thakkar.
The Tulbul project was suspended in 1987 after Pakistan increased objections. Also known as WULAR dam, Tulbul is a navigation locking control structure located on Jhelum at the mouth of Lake WULAR.
Pakistan affirms that it violates the Indus water Treaty; India, however, says that the project is a navigation center and authorized by the treaty.
India has also put pressure for an examination and a modification of the treaty, citing the changing needs for irrigation and drinking water to hydroelectricity, according to reports.
Being upstream, India also has the geographical advantage, but it is not easy to block huge amounts of water during high speed periods.
The existing hydroelectric power plants are mainly serial projects rich for the production of electricity without retaining huge volumes of water. Some people say that India does not even fully use its share of 20% of Jhelum, Chenab and Industry waters authorized under the Treaty.
But it can start controlling the flow with an existing and potential infrastructure, the impact of which can be felt during the dry season. It can also rinse the silt of tanks without prior warning, potentially provoking downstream damage.
However, if an upstream country does not treat a downstream country well, he must remember that he can also be downstream for another country as in the Brahmapoutre basin. But given the situation, the problem (IWT) should only degenerate, says Thakkar.
