Economists, strategists who say that a recession is likely or not

If you have the impression that the American economy has been in a phase of will, they are not with a potential recession for too long, you are not wrong.

While the dreaded word has been on the economy for years, a high -level economist said this week that the risk of recession had increased to 90%. The last time the United States was in recession was in 2020 during the pandemic.

A recession, or a significant slowdown in economic activity that lasts more than a few months, is generally defined as two consecutive quarters of the gross negative, or GDP in -laws. Negative GDP means that the total value of goods and services produced is decreasing – in other words, the economy is shrinking.

Current recession indicators include a drop in GDP, a decrease in real income and an increase in unemployment.

President Donald Trump said China faces prices that were up to 245%, and that his administration has also imposed a price widely applied to 10%. The announcements have fueled new concerns about the possibility of a recession, economists warning potential impacts.

A Bankrate’s first quarter survey revealed that the best economists thought that a recession became more likely. The survey revealed that the chances of a recession in the next 12 months were 36%, compared to 26% in the last quarter of 2024 – and it was before Trump went up his trade war in April.

Here is what the main economists have recently said about the probability of a recession.

Torsten Sløk, Apollo Global Management

Torsten Sløk is the best economist in Apollo Global Management, an asset management company based in New York. SLøk said in a note to Apollo customers during the weekend that there were now 90% chance that the United States entered a “reset to voluntary trade”.

“Prices have been implemented in a way that has not been effective,” said Sløk. “Small businesses that have been based for decades on a stable American system will have to adapt immediately and do not have the working fund to pay prices. Expect the ships sit in offshore, the orders to be canceled and the well-managed generational retailers will deposit the bankruptcy.”

Sløk has given several reasons why a slowdown in small businesses could have a significant impact on the economy, especially that they explain most American jobs and more capital spending, or investments in the economy, than companies with great capitalization.

“The main thing: if the current level of prices continues, a net slowdown in the American economy arrives,” he said.

Adam Posen, Peterson Institute for International Economics

Adam Posen, economist and president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington DC reflection group, said last week that the increase in inflation was inevitable and that there was a good chance of recession accordingly.

Posen said there was a 65% chance that the American economy slipped into a recession and that it could enter a feared stagflation territory, in which inflation is persistent and that growth is slow.

He also said that the government did not seem prepared to respond to the inflation it provides and that the Fed was “too loose” with monetary policy.

“If we get inflation, the Fed will be behind the curve,” he said.

Bill Dudley, former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank

Bill Dudley, economist and former president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, said this month that Stagflation could be the “best case” for the American economy.

In an editorial for Bloomberg, Dudley said that the White House pricing policy could lead to 5% inflation over the next six months.

“If companies transmit the cost of higher imports to consumers, inflation will be more persistent and the less friendly Fed. If they cannot, the beneficiary margins will shrink and the income will be unleashed,” he wrote. “”

“All in all, stagflation is the optimistic scenario. More likely, the United States will find itself in a full-fledged recession accompanied by higher inflation,” he continued.

Bruce Kasman, JP Morgan

JP Morgan said in a note last week that the bank estimates that the probability that the United States entered a recession in 2025 was 60%.

“Even with the latest steps of return of the measures of the Draconian Liberation Day, what remains is still enough to push the United States and China – and therefore probably the world economy – in a recession this year,” said Bruce Kasman, world economist at JP Morgan.

The note indicates that the high price on China alongside the universal price by 10% increased the average American rate rate to 30% and that it amounted to 1 dollars, 3% of GDP, “by making the highest increase in household tax and American companies since the Second World War”.

“What remains is still enough to push the United States and China – and therefore probably the global economy – in a recession this year,” said Kasman, adding: “Another important concern is that sustained restrictive trade policies and the reduction in the flow of immigration can impose sustainable supply costs, which will reduce long -term American growth.”

But the United States could still avoid a recession, some say

Wells Fargo’s strategists said earlier this month, there were key signs that the United States could avoid a recession in 2025.

While the bank has lowered its growth expectations of GDP, it said that an economic withdrawal could be a correction of a solid 2024.

“Key economic supports remain intact, in our opinion, and can limit the slowdown,” wrote the strategists. “We see a fertile soil for a moderate growth recovery from the second half.”

Four positive signs included regular income growth, an increase in household wealth, long -term interest rates in decline and that the financial markets remain liquid.

John Stoltzfus, the investment chief strategist at Openheimer, an investment bank based in New York, lowered its performance expectations S&P 500, but said it thought that the United States would always avoid slowing down.

“When the prices were introduced, everything looked much harder than we had planned,” Stoltzfus said in James Faris of Business Insider.

But Stoltzfus said he did not think that the United States is heading for a recession and stressed that recession warnings in recent years had been wrong.

Stoltzfus, which is generally more optimistic about actions and the economy, said that he thought that the financial markets are wrong on Trump’s trade policy.

“We don’t think it’s the end of globalization,” he said. “We believe that the end point of this is just to re-globalize with advantages for the developed and emerging markets outside the United States, to recover part of the company which has been dedicated to China for so many years.”