This article was originally published by Healthbeat, a nonprofit newsroom covering public health published by Civic News Company and KFF Health News. Sign up for your local NYC epidemiologist and get Dr. Marisa Donnelly’s community public health forecast delivered to your inbox a day early.
Do you feel like everyone around you is sick right now? Yeah, me too. It seems like half my friends and family have the sniffles, and I’m still recovering from a respiratory infection. Our New York communities are in peak respiratory season. Let’s look at the most recent respiratory data after the holidays, as well as a little about norovirus. Here is your inventory.
Influenza: high and increasing
The number of people with flu in New York is high: Hospitalizations in the state increased 44% in the week ending January 4 compared to the previous week. The increases are widespread across all regions of the state.
In a previous article, I mentioned that flu activity started later this year than last year and shared some hypotheses about what that might mean about flu intensity this year.
Currently, the flu season is shaping up to be similar to pre-pandemic times. Flu activity has not yet reached its peak (unlike last year, when it peaked in the last week of December). The question is: will the number of serious infections be similar to last year, or worse?
Only time will tell, but in the meantime, it’s a good idea to take protective measures against the flu, such as wearing a mask in busy spaces (when traveling, on the subway, in supermarkets, etc.). ) and avoid social interactions if you are. I don’t feel well. The flu usually experiences a second peak later in winter due to the circulation of influenza B (currently, most flu cases are due to influenza A), and infections can last into March or April, so it’s not too late to get your flu shot at a local pharmacy. or at the clinic.
Covid-19: Minimal and increasing
Covid-19 activity in New York this season has been surprisingly low, with levels increasing more slowly than last season. This is our mildest winter for Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic. This is probably because we had a very large wave of Covid-19 at the end of last summer, which resulted in a lot of immunity. I expect Covid-19 activity to continue to increase in New York as national and regional Covid-19 levels are high and continue to rise.
Covid-19 continues to spread in New York, where sewage levels are increasing.
RSV: High but decreasing
RSV has peaked and is now declining in New York. This season’s peak occurred about two weeks later than last year, but it was largely a shoulder season (so far there have been similar numbers of cases as last year).
RSV infections among children, who are typically hit hardest, have been similar this season to pre-pandemic levels. We were hoping that RSV vaccines would have a greater effect this year in keeping children out of the hospital. I will be looking for more data on how the RSV vaccines affected hospitalizations after the season ends.
We still expect there to be several weeks of high RSV activity, so we’re not out of the woods yet.
Norovirus: an increase, and you don’t want it
Norovirus cases are increasing in New York and many other parts of the United States. Noroviruses are a group of highly contagious viruses that cause gastrointestinal problems like vomiting and diarrhea. It is the most common cause of intestinal “flu” or “bacteria,” causing between 19 and 20 million cases each year in the United States. In New York, there were around 1,300 cases in December, almost triple the number recorded during the same period in 2023 (488 cases).
Norovirus is spread through contact with infected people, contaminated surfaces and food. It’s notoriously contagious. When infected with norovirus, people shed billions of virus particles, but it only takes a few particles to infect someone. Unfortunately, hand sanitizer does not kill the virus because it does not have an outer membrane.
To prevent the spread of norovirus:
- Wash your hands frequently with soap and warm or hot water for at least 20 seconds.
- Use detergents containing bleach to clean and disinfect surfaces.
- To make your own, mix 1 teaspoon of bleach in 1 gallon of cold water.
- All materials handled by people infected with norovirus – sheets, towels, dishes, utensils, door handles and especially surfaces in the bathroom – must be cleaned well to prevent its spread.
Most people should recover from norovirus on their own within 2 to 3 days.
Emerging diseases: avian flu
Last week, news of the first death from avian influenza (H5N1) in the United States broke, providing a tragic reminder that this virus is dangerous and that we, as a country, need to be on alert. Fortunately, we have still seen no person-to-person transmission, and only two of the 74 cases identified in the United States were seriously ill. (See this recent YLE article for more details.)
We have not had any known cases of avian flu in dairy herds or humans in New York, so the current risk to New Yorkers is low. However, we may be missing cases as testing of cattle is voluntary. But starting this month we should have more visibility. New York is part of a national milk testing program run by the USDA and is one of 28 states that tests milk for H5N1 in bulk raw milk (both milk that will be pasteurized and which will remain raw). I’ll come back with a more in-depth analysis when we have more information.
Conclusion
Winter transmission of the virus is currently high. Stay healthy: mask up, wash your hands and whiten surfaces.
Love,
Your local epidemiologist
Dr Marisa Donnellysenior epidemiologist with wastewater monitoring company Biobot Analytics, has worked in applied public health for over a decade, specializing in infectious diseases and emerging public health threats. She has a doctorate in epidemiology and has conducted several outbreak investigations, including at the California Department of Public Health and as an outbreak intelligence officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Marisa conducted research in Peru, focusing on dengue and Zika viruses and the mosquitoes that spread them. She is Healthbeat’s contributing epidemiologist for New York in partnership with Your Local Epidemiologist, a Healthbeat supporter. She lives in New York. Marisa can be reached at mdonnelly@healthbeat.org.
