The last time Trump was elected, many in the United States and around the world were reassured by the idea that Europe would step into the breach. They said then-German Chancellor Angela Merkel was the true leader of the free world — a role immortalized in an iconic G7 photo where she is flanked by the leaders of the world’s major democracies, towering over a sulking Trump. But today, Europe has based its entire security, economic and political strategy on the existence of an American ally that Trump has now declared extinct.
However, a major opinion poll by my organization, the European Council on Foreign Relations, shows that Europe’s concern about Trump is not widely shared.
After surveying 28,000 people in 24 countries, we found that the vast majority of people around the world believe that Trump is, in fact, good for the United States, good for the world, and good for world peace.
According to our data, three in five people in India, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and South Africa believe in Trump’s promise to end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours. One in two people believe that peace will be achieved in the Middle East. And the prevailing view everywhere is that he will indeed save Washington’s relationship with Beijing – a view that is shared quite strikingly by just under half of Chinese participants in the poll.
Although many welcome Trump’s return to power, they don’t necessarily believe he will make America great again. In fact, in 20 of the 24 countries surveyed, more than half of respondents believe China will be the most powerful country in the world in 20 years. Among major middle powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Indonesia and South Africa, almost seven in ten people believe this.
It is ironic that it is precisely the elements that make Trump’s return to the White House so frightening to many Europeans that make him attractive to the rest of the world.
