I almost did it. I almost had the perfect slate.
Not in a good way, of course. I almost went winless, which seems unlikely until you consider the type of season I’ve had here picking games. Only the Los Angeles Rams saved me with my ATS picks by eliminating the Vikings. This meant I had 1-5 for the week. Terrible, but better than an O-fer. I was also 3-3 in a row.
This brings my season records to 181-97-0 and a disappointing 129-143-6 ATS.
That’s it to get to 0.500 ATS for the year. With just seven games left, this ship has sailed.
But let’s see if I can close out the season with a little hot streak. I like three dogs this week, which goes against the NFL’s trend of covering favorites all season long, but that’s how I see it for the divisional round of the playoffs .
It can’t be worse than last week. RIGHT?
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, free fubo trial)
The Chiefs have had three weeks of rest, which they needed. But will the rest cause rust? I don’t think it’s a problem for this group of veterans.
The Texans impressed by beating the Chargers last week at home as the offense showed life, but the defense really came on strong. They need the same type of defensive effort here. These teams met in Kansas City in December and the Chiefs won 27-19. In last week’s win over the Chargers, the Texans pressured Justin Herbert into four turnovers. But getting that kind of pressure is always the challenge against Patrick Mahomes. Can they pressure him enough to slow him down and force takeaways?
The Chiefs have had offensive line issues this season, but they have been better in the last month. This will lead to a more comfortable Mahomes. With Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field together, expect the Chiefs to get going on offense. Their defense will get the most out of the Texans offensive line. This will lead to CJ Stroud turnovers that will propel the Chiefs to another AFC Championship game.
Take: Chiefs 30, Texans 21
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try free)
This should be a high score. The Lions are dynamic in attack and have defensive problems. The Commanders, with rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, can also score.
Daniels will be even more electrifying inside in the fast lane. But the Lions will also have theirs. The Commanders may not be ready to win a game like this, especially in this environment, but they will stay. Daniels is so good.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn will send plenty of looks at Daniels, but he will hold his own and make big plays with his legs against the blitz. But in the end, it will be the Lions who advance with a solid performance from their offense, led by Jared Goff. He will hit some big shots on the ground against the secondary commanders to win.
Take: Lions 34, Commanders 31
Sunday, 3 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try free)
The Rams are coming off a physical dominance over the Vikings where they impressed on both sides of the ball. The Eagles beat the Packers and did so behind a dominant defense.
The Eagles’ plan here is simple, and it’s the one they used to beat the Rams earlier this year: eliminate Saquon Barkley. He rushed for 255 yards and two scores as the Eagles beat the Rams, 35-20, in late November. But this Rams team is better than that one. The defense has grown. It won’t be as easy this time. The Eagles will need to throw better than Jalen Hurts did last week.
As for the Rams offense, Matthew Stafford is one of the best playoff quarterbacks in history. This counts against a Vic Fangio scheme. Ultimately, it’s the Eagles who will win it. But it will be much closer than the first meeting.
Take: Eagles 23, Rams 20
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
This is the game of the week for many, matching the top two MVP candidates, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson and Bills quarterback Josh Allen. Both have been exceptional this season, carrying their teams to this place.
The Ravens defeated the Bills in Week 4 of this season in a dominant 35-10 performance. This game was a Sunday night home game for the Ravens, which they used to their advantage. This is a road game in a difficult location to play, which will make it much more difficult.
I expect both defenses to be better than when they last met. The Ravens turned things around by putting Kyle Hamilton at safety full time and he helped turn around the defense. The Bills were without starting linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson in this game, which showed that Derrick Henry was on a rampage that night.
This game will be decided by which defense plays the best and gets the turnovers. I think those will be the bills. I think Allen will continue to take care of the football and make big plays in the passing game, which may be the way to beat the Ravens. The Bills would win an unforgettable game thanks to a late field goal from Tyler Bass.
Take: Bills 31, Crows 30
