THE Roki Sasaki the frenzy is coming to an end. Several teams have reportedly been told they will not sign the right-hander and ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that the Dodgers, Padres and Blue Jays are the three finalists. The Cubs are no longer in contention, according to Mike Rodriguez, with Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic adding that the Cubs have been informed of their status.
It seems that today is the day that Sasaki and his representatives began to notify the teams that had been eliminated from the race. Earlier today, various reports indicated that the Giants, Yankees, Mets, Rangers and Diamondbacks would not sign Sasaki. The Mariners were vaguely linked to Sasaki at times and weren’t expressly eliminated, but it appears they didn’t make the podium in the top three.
Sasaki’s decision was one of the biggest wild cards hanging over the offseason. Because he joined the big leagues before his 25th birthday, he is considered an amateur under MLB rules and is therefore subject to the international bonus pool system. As such, no club can be initially ruled out solely for economic reasons, as is typically the case with other free agents.
Each team receives an annual amount of money which they are allowed to spend on international amateurs. This year’s pools are in the $5 million to $8 million range, with smaller market clubs mostly having slightly larger pools. Teams can trade for more pool space, but they cannot increase their initial allocation by more than 60%. A posting fee will also be owed to the Chiba Lotte Marines, Sasaki’s former club in Japan, but this will only add 20% of the bonus. As such, each team has about the same ability to pay Sasaki a few million dollars.
So Sasaki will probably decide based on factors other than money. After all, if money was his top priority, he probably would have waited until he was 25. Yoshinobu Yamamoto did, leading to a $325 million deal with the Dodgers.
No one can say for sure what Sasaki’s priorities are, although the Dodgers and Padres have been considered logical suitors for some time now. Both clubs are on the west coast, closer to Japan, which is perhaps a favorable factor considering the flights of Sasaki and his family members. The Dodgers also have a solid reputation as a whole, having made the playoffs every year since 2013, with another World Series win in 2024. The Padres don’t have quite the same track record of success, but have been good in recent years.
Both clubs also have Japanese players on the roster, with the Dodgers having Yamamoto and Ohtani, while the Padres have Yu Darvish. Some reports suggest that Sasaki and Darvish have a particularly close relationship.
The Jays have been offered much less as a landing spot for Sasaki than the Dodgers or Padres, which is reasonable. They’re not on the West Coast. They had a strong rivalry from 2020 to 2023, but are coming off a bad season. They had Yusei Kikuchi until last year’s trade deadline, but we currently don’t have any Japanese players on the roster.
In April 2023, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote that “some Japanese players are uncomfortable being major league teammates with other Japanese players because of the importance of seniority in the team’s hierarchical culture.” Japan, say major league executives and agents. » This piece examined the possibility of Ohtani singing with the Mets when they had already Kodai Senga on the list. Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, downplayed the importance of a club having Japanese players on its roster, whether positively or negatively. “It was never a topic of discussion,” Wolfe said last month, according to ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez.
It’s possible that Sasaki is drawn to playing in another country for other reasons. Wolfe suggested that the Japanese media were often unkind to Sasaki, which could perhaps make it better for him to be in a smaller market. Toronto isn’t exactly a small market, but it would be further removed from American media attention. The Blue Jays are also owned by Rogers Communications, the media company that broadcasts the club’s games on television and radio. Perhaps this would allow the Jays to promise Sasaki a more monitored environment in terms of media access. Toronto is also a city known for its diversity and relatively low crime rate.
These are all speculative arguments, but the same could be said for arguments that Sasaki prefers Los Angeles or San Diego. Sasaki and Wolfe have given very few clues as to what will be used to make the final decision, leaving the baseball world mostly guessing.
Whatever he decides will likely have ripple effects throughout the rest of the offseason. The Padres have a tight budget and needs throughout their roster. Trade Dylan Cease would be a potential solution to their situation, which would perhaps become more likely if they signed Sasaki. The Dodgers already have plenty of rotation options and could consider a trade of their own if they add Sasaki. That may be less likely with the Jays, who have tried to add a starting pitcher all winter without success so far.
There will also be domino effects elsewhere. Whichever team signs Sasaki will likely have to back away from their verbal commitments to Latin American teenagers because they will have to redirect bonus money to Sasaki. This will lead these players to look for other clubs. Some of that appears to have already started to happen, as the Pirates are reportedly close to signing Darell Morel, a Dominican shortstop who was previously signed to the Dodgers.
It won’t take long for all of these ripple effects to really amplify. Sasaki’s release window ends on January 23, meaning the resolution will arrive in less than a week. He cannot officially sign until January 15, when the new international signing period begins, although it is possible a deal could be announced before then.
