5 things to watch as the Chiefs host the Texans in the divisional round

It’s time. After an 18-week dress rehearsal that the rest of the league calls the “regular season,” the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) open the playoffs against the Houston Texans (10-8) in the divisional round. of the AFC. This will be the first of four playoff games this weekend, which begin Saturday at 3:30 p.m. at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Chiefs’ starters will wake up on game day, 23 days after the Christmas Day victory that sealed the playoff bye week. Conversely, the Texans regained confidence after a 32-12 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card round.

Four weeks ago, the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 at Arrowhead. The reigning Super Bowl champions have a clean injury record and rest, while Houston has some questionable key players.

This sets the stage for the Chiefs to be the heavy favorites and the Texans to play the role of spoiler, looking to avenge the two playoff losses suffered by Kansas City in the last decade.

Here are five things to watch out for in the first divisional round:

1. The Chiefs’ starting offensive line

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On Friday, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler reported that Joe Thuney is expected to start at left tackle opposite veteran DJ Humphries.

The decision highlights what the Chiefs offense will be worth in the postseason. Pass protection is clearly paramount; the passing attack was as good as it has been all season, with Thuney protecting the blind side. The running game was considerably less effective in the three games without Thuney at left guard.

Weeks 1-14: 46.5% rushing success rate (NFL Rank: 1st)

Weeks 15-17: 37% rushing success rate (NFL rank: 25th)

Thuney at left tackle can increase the level of pass protection, but it could still expose left guard Mike Caliendo on passing downs. In the Wild Card victory, the Texans produced three sacks; two of them occurred when defensive end Denico Autry beat a guard.

2. Earn the right to rush CJ Stroud

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The Texans’ offense is centered around running back Joe Mixon, who sets the tone on the field, shortens sticks and creates play-action passing opportunities. He totaled 106 yards on 25 carries in the Wild’s victory Card, laying the foundation for the Texans’ second-most productive game of the season in terms of total yards.

This big game had some consequences: Mixon is questionable to play with an ankle injury this week. Whether he’s available or not, the Chiefs defense needs to shut down the engine of the running game to set up the pass rush. Texans quarterback CJ Stroud excels at missteps, completing 71% of his play passes this year.

In Week 16, the Chiefs held Mixon to just 57 rushing yards on 14 attempts. A similar effort will provide opportunities for the Chiefs pass rush to pinch their ears and get after Stroud on long second or third downs.

3. Attack the Texans pass protection

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The Chiefs pass rush is fresh and ready to put its mark on the playoff race. Defensive tackle Chris Jones is going full tilt after a calf injury kept him out in Week 17.

Jones and the headliners will demand attention from a Texans offense that allowed the third-most sacks of any team in the regular season. These are the Chiefs’ rotational edge rushers who can make the difference in one-on-one situations. Defensive linemen Tershawn Wharton and Mike Danna can disrupt the interior while the big names cede the pocket on the outside.

The Texans are expected to return starting right guard Shaq Mason, who hasn’t played since Week 16 due to a knee injury. He was not listed on the final injury report. This could bolster an interior offensive line that moves center Juice Scruggs to Mason’s spot. Scruggs was limited in practice this week due to an ankle injury.

Jones’ eyes will be on rookie right tackle Blake Fisher. Jones likes to line up for that edge on passing downs, and Fisher has allowed four sacks and six other quarterback hits in six starts at right tackle this season.

4. Targeted Coverage on Nico Collins

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When Stroud throws the ball, he will most likely look for wide receiver Nico Collins. He’s a significant threat, but the only real difference maker left in Houston’s receiving corps.

The Chiefs focused firmly on eliminating Collins in the previous game, limiting him to just 60 receiving yards on 10 targets. The emphasis was on pass prevention over the middle to Collins, who gained 104 yards and a touchdown on breaking routes in the Wild Card round.

In Week 16, the Chiefs intercepted two passes thrown between the numbers to Collins. Look for the same emphasis on Saturday, and if the Chiefs can handle that without tight end Dalton Schultz making them pay. Kansas City finished the regular season with the most receiving yards allowed to tight ends (1,191).

5. Seize explosive play opportunities

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The Chiefs offense should shift into playoff mode, which should mean solid play designs and an efficient system to ensure drives end in touchdowns rather than field goals.

This obviously indicates the need to finish more opportunities in the red zone; the Chiefs ranked 22nd in red zone conversion rate this season. However, the offense can take a step forward by making more explosive plays, whether it’s running or passing.

Over the past two playoffs, running back Isiah Pacheco has gashed the defense 13 times for a gain of 10 yards or more.

On the outside, look for Texans rookie cornerback Kamari Lassiter to match one of the Chiefs’ speed threats: Xavier Worthy or Hollywood Brown. Lassiter is an aggressive playmaker, but he may not have the game speed to keep up the court.