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5 takeaways after Gov. Gavin Newsom survives California recall attempt

SACRAMENTO, Calif .– California Governor Gavin Newsom ably fought off an attempt to recall Republicans on Tuesday, changing the stakes in the contest from a referendum on his own performance to a partisan fight against Trumpism and the coronavirus.

Five takeaways from Newsom’s victory:

COVID PRECAUTIONS CAN HELP DEMOCRATS

Republicans wanted the recall to be a referendum on Democratic rule in California and the homelessness, crime, high housing costs and energy issues that came with it. But in a bit of political ju-jitsu – and with help from the spreading delta variant – Newsom made it a referendum on Republicans’ opposition to coronavirus precautions.

Republicans who ran in to replace Newsom opposed the mask and vaccine warrants, and the California governor was happy to point out. Newsom ran an ad calling the recall a “matter of life and death” and accusing the leading Republican candidate, radio host Larry Elder, of “peddling deadly conspiracy theories.”

Ironically, the recall gained momentum after Newsom was surprised in November at a lobbyist’s birthday party at a posh Napa Valley restaurant – unmasked and in a big party that violated his own orders to social distancing. But his strategists have argued for weeks that his leadership during the pandemic is a plus for him – and that other Democrats shouldn’t be afraid to lead the issue.

In his remarks after his victory, Newsom highlighted the virus. “I want to focus on what we said yes to as a state: we said ‘yes’ to science, we said ‘yes’ to vaccines, we said ‘yes’ to the end of this pandemic “, the governor told reporters.

GOP RETURNS SUBSTANTIAL FRAUD ALLEGATIONS

The baseless allegations of Republican election fraud aren’t going away anytime soon.

Even while the ballots were still pending, Republicans claimed the election had been “rigged.” It was a baseless claim – and odd given that Republicans performed relatively well under the same California electoral system in November, winning four seats in Congress.

But former President Donald Trump’s false rhetoric of electoral fraud quickly became embedded in Republican politics. The former president enthusiastically added his own voice to the demands. And, days before the polls closed, the Elder campaign bizarrely began circulating a link to a petition demanding an investigation into his loss, alleging widespread fraud – what some Republicans feared was a message his constituents shouldn’t even bother showing up on Tuesday.

The recall has always been drawn out in a state where registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans almost 2 to 1 and where the GOP has not won statewide elections since 2006. But the turn of the Republicans toward baseless conspiracy theories and fraud claiming to explain a loss that polls would happen for months shows the party will not shy away from those suspicions. This led to the Jan.6 attack on the United States Capitol following Trump’s defeat.

Notably, Elder appeared to be trying to back out of the inflammatory election allegations on Tuesday night. In his concession speech, he told his supporters, “Let us be gracious in defeat.

Still, some Californians are worried about what could happen to their condition.

“This will be the second election in a row where there are aggressive and emotional accusations of voter fraud,” said Mindy Romero, director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy at the University of Southern California. “I can’t see a positive in that.”

NO LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL FOR CALIFORNIA GOP

The recall offered California Republicans their one plausible hit at a statewide office in one of the nation’s bluest states. The recall is a way to dodge a face-to-face meeting that would send voters back to their usual partisan corners.

That’s what happened in 2003 when Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger won a recall against Democratic Governor Gray Davis. Schwarzenegger’s moderate politics would never have won a GOP primary, but was attractive enough to voters who were fed up with the incumbent president. Some Republicans were hoping it would happen again this year, with former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a moderate, on the ballot.

But there were two problems for the GOP. First, California is now very different from 2003 – it is more liberal and more diverse. There are over 3 million more registered Democrats in the state now than in the last recall, but almost 400,000 fewer Republicans.

Second, Faulconer never understood. Instead, Elder’s bombastic style, honed over his decades on radio and echoing Trump, propelled him to the top of the Republican pack. Newsom, sensing a favorable contrast, began hammering Elder on the air.

Some Republicans had hoped that the populist approach of Elder, who is African-American, might appeal to the diverse electorate in California. But it doesn’t seem to have worked.

“Larry Elder was exactly what Gavin Newsom needed,” said Rob Stutzman, a veteran California GOP strategist.

NEWSOM TAKES A FEEDBACK

There is no doubt that Newsom won the recall elections. But he may not have come out unscathed.

When he was elected in 2018, Newsom was riding an anti-Trump wave in a state that saw itself as the heart of the “resistance” to Republican rule in Washington. The former mayor of San Francisco was seen as a possible future presidential candidate.

Three years later, his state is reeling from a brutal drought and the accompanying forest fires. Heat waves trigger progressive blackouts. Homelessness continues to be rampant in the state’s mega-cities as the cost of housing shows no signs of easing.

The recall demonstrated that Republicans are unlikely to beat Newsom in a partisan race. And the governor can boast of an unbalanced victory on Tuesday, although the precise margin will likely not be known for weeks until all the ballots are counted.

But California has a large number of Democrats who may be eager to move forward, and the state’s problems aren’t going away anytime soon. “I think there are Democrats looking at this thing with their bibs and their forks and knives out,” Stutzman said.

Newsom’s political operation was successful in preventing the Main Democrats from running as an alternative to the recall, which allowed him to describe the effort as a partisan Republican scam. Will he be able to rule out the challengers in 2022?

SCRAMBLED SIGNS FOR LAND ENVIRONMENTS

The recall is the first major election for Joe Biden’s presidency and served as a political stress test for both sides heading into next year’s midterms.

Democrats have shown they can vote even though their party holds the White House – a traditionally difficult feat, which is why the ruling party typically loses seats in Congress in midterm elections. Republicans are trying to win back the House and the Senate. Turnout for the recall was expected to be high – some experts predicted it would approach the more than 12 million people who voted in 2018 in California.

The dismissal of the recall – and Elder – shows that a candidate who is too aligned with Trump remains toxic in some areas, both Democrats and also on current political battlefields like the former Republican County of Orange.

Finally, the recall was a referendum on Newsom and how Californians wanted their state to be governed, especially with regard to the coronavirus – an issue the governor has a lot of influence over. The mid-terms will be a referendum on Biden. The power the GOP could gain – control of Congress – is not the executive branch, where the coronavirus regulations come from to date.

It’s not clear Democrats can mount the same defense of Congress as they did of their governor in the nation’s most populous state.

Copyright © 2021 by The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

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