- Trump, once a launch of the first time, is now found in turbulent waters.
- Is this the first thunder crack before a steeperson?
The official Trump (Trump) same, launched on January 17, 2025, recently experienced an important token unlocking event.
On April 18, the market published 40 million Trump tokens, valued at around $ 300 million.
These tokens represent 20% of the current supply in circulation and 4% of the total supply, which will reach 1 billion tokens over the next three years.
However, structurally, Trump has shown severe degradation of prices, retracing -88% compared to his $ 74.59 ATH.
With a weakening of the price structure and a sales pressure pressure, does this unlock represent a “high-risk” liquidity event or a bet calculated on a volatile market?
Tokenomics Trump under control
The Trump token has a ceiling of 1 billion tokens, which should be unlocked over the next three years, creating a hard supply ceiling.
Currently, 20% of the total supply, or about 200 million tokens, are in circulation, the remaining tokens which should gradually unlock.
Once the new tokens are in circulation, they will contribute to the dilution of the market, losing a drop in the price on the price, especially if the holders choose to sell immediately during unlocking.
However, despite the inflationary effects and supply pressure, Trump’s fundamentals have shown remarkable resilience, as illustrated by the graph below.
Source: Glassnode
Even if the token lost the initial “media threshing” after the launch, the unrealized profit / loss of Trump of Trump (NUPL) did not enter the territory of the capitulation. Instead, maintained a bias bias.
This suggests that short -term holders (STH) always occupy positions, demonstrating optimism and avoid making losses.
In conclusion, price correction of 88% of Trump could lead to volatility after the publication of 40 million tokens.
However, his solid fundamentals suggest that his tokenomics continue to position him as a convincing optimistic bet.
Key levels to monitor
Alternating on the upward thesis of Ambcrypto, Trump presented an intraday rally rally rally in the aftermath of 40 million tokens.
Consequently, recovery of the psychological level of $ 8 in the middle of an increase of 68% of the negotiation volume 24 hours a day.
This price response reflects the bullish absorption of the unlocking event, reporting that market players can have dilution on the side of the offer.
However, it is not clear if this decision constitutes a structural reversal or simply a reflexive rebound in a broader decrease trend.
In other words, has Trump established a final cyclic floor, or is it an temporary rally focused on liquidity started for average reversion?
The table below can offer this answer.
Source: Glassnode
On the one hand, a strong conviction for holders continues to defend the level of support of $ 7, preventing a breakdown. On the other, weak capital entrances cap the rupture potential of Trump.
The network growth metrics reflect this stagnation, the new portfolio addresses falling strongly at only 1,476 – a contrast that is striking with the number of portfolios of 700,000 observed during its bullish expansion phase.
In conclusion, Trump’s recent gathering seems to be a reflexive rebound, pulled by a speculative positioning around the unlocking of token.
Without renewed hindrances or resurgence of network activity, the asset remains vulnerable to prolonged consolidation.
