Former President Donald Trump sits in Manhattan Criminal Court in New York on May 20, 2024. A jury on Thursday found Trump guilty of all 34 counts.
Dave Sanders/The New York Times via AP, Pool
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Dave Sanders/The New York Times via AP, Pool
For the first time in American history, a former president has been convicted of a crime.
A jury of his peers in New York unanimously found Donald Trump guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to influence the 2016 presidential election.
Remarkably, this is happening during an election year in which the former president is running to return to his old office, and it will undoubtedly have political consequences.
“The real verdict will be made by the people on November 5,” Trump said outside the New York courtroom after the verdict.
“There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: through the ballot box,” Biden campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said in a statement.
Well, they agree on one thing.
So what will be the political consequences of all this? Let’s look at these takeaways from a momentous day in American history:
1. Donald Trump will always be the Republican candidate.
Technically, the Republican Party nomination convention hasn’t happened yet, so it could, in theoryselect another candidate.
But that doesn’t happen. Republicans are lining up behind Trump, from the House speaker to Trump allies auditioning to be his vice presidential running mate.
Trump has complete control over the Republican National Committee. He has installed loyalists in state parties across the country and, as a result, is in a stronger position within the Republican Party than in 2016, when he repelled a coup attempt of Texas Senator Ted Cruz and his allies.
This is Trump’s party. Complete stop. He will be nominated by the party. This will take place, incredibly, just days after his scheduled sentencing date in this case (July 11).
And he will be on the ballot in November.
Also, to be clear: Trump will not go to prison, lawyers say, because he has no criminal record. This crime carries penalties ranging from probation to some house arrest, and up to four years in prison.
It’s also not at all clear that Trump will lose his right to vote in Florida, despite his felony conviction.
Plus, Trump is going to appeal, so the real consequences, if the verdict is upheld, potentially won’t happen for months.
2. Yes, Trump’s base will probably stay with him, but it’s not the primary anymore.
Trump managed to raise considerable sums of money during the primaries, and he has only grown stronger during this period – among Republicans.
Now is when the real test comes, and it is with the general election public. There are a few key questions:
- Will this belief resonate with compelling voters in key states?
- Does this do anything to rally support among Biden voters with whom he has difficulty, such as young voters, black voters and Latinos? They’ve been lukewarm on Biden, in part because of his affordability, housing costs and his age, but will they vote for a “convicted felon” or will they stay away or will they support a third party candidate?
- Particularly important, in a year when turnout is expected to be lower than four years ago, will this verdict turn around or suppress turnout among a few potential Trump voters, especially white voters without college degrees? They are a vital part of Trump’s base, but they are a group whose turnout rates have been lower than others over the years. Republicans would say absolutely no, that it would only galvanize his base.
The latest NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll suggests most voters won’t be swayed one way or another. It showed that some, including young voters, could be marginalized, but it could be a reset moment for the campaign.
This is a historic moment in American history. Many Americans will likely just tune in now to learn more about this conviction. And the bottom line is this: The last thing Trump wanted was “Trump” and “convicted felon” in the same title. And barring a reversal on appeal before the election, that’s what will be attached to it as voters weigh their choices.
3. The ball is in Biden’s court to see if he can leverage it politically.
The president was very cautious when discussing Trump’s legal problems. As Trump continues to dominate the news with extensive coverage of the trials, it has been difficult for the Biden campaign to break through.
It makes sense, in one very important respect, that Biden, until the verdict, did not hammer Trump on his legal problems. He is president, and he did not want to show any trace of impropriety and did not want to appear in any way to influence the Justice Department’s federal investigations into Trump or the prosecutors of State.
That hasn’t stopped Trump and the conservative media from saying exactly that — and worse. But now, with this verdict, and with what will likely be the only trial Trump faces before the election — despite three other major election-related cases against him — expect Biden to weigh in on this issue.
The line Biden must walk is between being president and being a candidate. The White House counsel’s office largely had no comment, but Biden’s campaign weighed in, noting that the New York case shows that “no one is above the law.”
Now Biden must choose. And for now, he’s slightly behind in the race. So the question is not really whether Biden will talk about his conviction, but whether he is able to make it happen and build on it.
4. The verdict raises the stakes for the big moments of the campaign.
There will now be challenges for Biden and Trump on how to leverage this to their respective advantages.
The attempts began fast and furious. Trump and his surrogates denounced the legitimacy of the verdict immediately afterward, and both campaigns quickly issued statements and fundraising appeals.
This shows that this is a presidential campaign year and that every turn will be subject to increased attention.
There will be big moments ahead that will provide opportunities and risks to candidates in this regard:
- June 27: First, there’s the first-ever debate both candidates have agreed to, which will take place in less than a month. Can Biden use this effectively to his advantage? Can Trump defend himself in a way that doesn’t alienate middle-of-the-road voters?
- July 15-18: The next signposts are conventions. Republicans are first in Milwaukee, just days after Trump’s scheduled sentencing in the case. Expect Trump and his team to try to use this week to rally the base, unify and ensure there are no cracks in the foundation.
- August 19-22: Then it’s the Democrats’ turn in Chicago. Can Biden use this belief to shore up his coalition, which currently has gaping holes, and assure voters who continue to question his sanity that he is ready for the job? Remember, Democrats are also worried about potential protests that could make the party appear divided.
- September 10: It’s the final debate, kicking off the sprint to the finish and perhaps the last big chance for either candidate to make their case. Early voting begins shortly thereafter.
Campaigns will work to round up all the voters they think should vote to turn out — and Trump’s conviction will likely be a very big part of the campaign going forward.
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