A train of solar storms is heading toward Earth, with four coronal mass ejections (CMEs) expected over the coming days. Any potential impact could trigger impressive auroras in northern skies and perhaps even mid-latitudes.
Multiple CME launched from the sunspot region AR4246 between October 11 and 13 is expected to reach Earth between October 15 and 17, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Space Weather Prediction Center.
The strongest disturbances are expected between October 15 and 16, when geomagnetic storms could reach G1 (minor) levels. Although G1 is the softest category NOAA’s five-point space weather scaleit can still cause impressive aurora shows at high latitudes like northern Michigan or Maine. G1 storms can also cause small power grid fluctuations and minor impacts to satellites.
Scientists say the effects could last for several days. “The NOAA model shows the first storm hitting early or noon on October 14, UTC. Storms 2-4 arrive starting October 15 at noon. We could deal with their effects until early October 17, assuming the sun doesn’t send us any more Earth-directed storms!” Tamitha Skov, a space weather physicist, wrote about her Patreon page. Skov also shared an annotated NASA model showing the four eruptions heading toward Earth.
Skov added that the first CME would likely bring only a “mild disruption” but warned that the next three are “clustered together,” potentially amplifying their effects when they arrive in rapid succession.
NOAA and the United Kingdom Meteorological Office both expect the most significant space weather activity to occur around October 16, when the combined impact of CMEs could trigger minor geomagnetic storms (G1). This means the Northern Lights could make a brief return for skywatchers in northern Scotland, Canada and the northern US states, provided skies remain clear and the solar magnetic field tilts favorably towards Earth.
Solar activity has been high this week. The AR4246 region, a large and magnetically complex sunspot group, has produced several M-class flares, including an M2.7 flare on October 13 associated with one of the current CMEs.
CMEs are colossal explosions of magnetized plasma from the sun who can shake the Earth magnetic fieldproducing auroras when charged particles collide with atmospheric gases. Although these upcoming storms are expected to be moderate, their timing and grouping make them especially exciting for aurora chasers.
Keep your eyes on the sky and your cameras charged. We could have a blast!
