The first day of the NFL playoffs wasn’t as exciting as the league had anticipated, but the home teams held serve in a major way. The Houston Texans blew out the Los Angeles Chargers and the Baltimore Ravens easily took care of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the wild-card round, advancing to the divisional round of the playoffs.
Baltimore and Houston left no doubt regarding their playoff victories, creating a drama-free Saturday in the wild-card round. Even though there were blowouts in the two games, plenty of overreactions resulted from the outcome of these games.
Which overreactions from wild-card Saturday are merited? Which ones are actually overreactions?
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Is this the swan song for Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh? The Steelers lost their sixth straight playoff game under Tomlin, and the third straight by 14+ points. Pittsburgh looked lifeless in the first half of Saturday’s loss to Baltimore, a game that was reminiscent of the four straight losses the Steelers had to end the regular season.
Tomlin’s playoff record is now 8-11, as the Steelers are 3-9 in the postseason since making Super Bowl XLV in the 2010 season. Tomlin has had a non-losing season in every year he’s coached the Steelers, but little postseason success to show for it over the last 15 seasons. The Steelers are 16-14 in December/January over the past five seasons, and 0-4 in the postseason.
The Steelers seem content with making the playoffs, believing Tomlin maximizes the roster the front office constructed. While it’s highly unlikely they fire Tomlin, they could trade him this offseason. There’s a good bet Tomlin stays for 2025, but that seat will be warm.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
There was a time in this season the Steelers were 10-3 and en route to the AFC North title. Pittsburgh had a two-game lead over Baltimore with the head-to-head tiebreaker in hand, essentially being up three games with four to play. The Steelers didn’t win another game the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore twice during that stretch, including in the wild-card round of the playoffs. The Steelers faced five teams with winning records and lost to all five of them. The Steelers are the first 10-win team in NFL history to end the season on a five-game losing streak (including playoffs), showcasing how poor Pittsburgh has been to close out the year.
The Steelers were outscored by 52 points during that stretch, scoring just 14.3 points per game. This collapse was just as bad as the 2023 Eagles, 1999 Lions, and 1986 Jets — all had historic skids to end the season after strong starts.
The 2024 Steelers belong in the group of worst collapses in NFL history. They have a case to be the worst.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
If Terrell Davis didn’t exist, Derrick Henry has a much stronger case for this conversation. The Ravens running back certainly belongs in the discussion after rushing for 186 yards and two touchdowns in Saturday’s win over the Steelers (7.2 yards per carry).
Henry has the most games with 175+ rushing yards in playoff history (three) — passing Davis (two). He tied Davis for the most games with 150+ rushing yards (four) in playoff history and has the second-most rushing yards in a playoff game at age 30-or-older.
Henry has 918 playoff rushing yards in his career, good for ninth in NFL history. His 114.7 rushing yards per game trails only Davis (142.5) in the postseason for players who have played 5+ playoff games. Henry is one of the all-time great playoff resumes for a running back.
Davis has the edge with his Super Bowl MVP and his dominance in his eight playoff games. Henry is in the conservation as one of the greatest playoff running backs ever, but it will be very hard to unseat Davis.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Herbert had an opportunity to prove his first playoff appearance was just a product of circumstance rather than the narrative. That narrative only grew in Saturday’s wild-card playoff loss to the Texans, as Herbert finished 14 of 32 for 242 yards with one touchdown to four interceptions and a 40.9 passer rating — as the Chargers only scored one touchdown in the blowout loss.
Take away the fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Ladd McConkey (86 yards), and Herbert is 13 of 31 for 146 yards and four interceptions. That’s an abysmal performance for a quarterback that has 21,093 passing yards in five seasons.
Herbert had more interceptions in the wild-card round than he had all season (three). His postseason numbers aren’t great either, as Herbert has completed 52% of his passes for 515 yards with two touchdowns to four interceptions (60.7 rating) in two postseason starts — 0-2 record.
This loss isn’t entirely on Herbert, as the Chargers were 2-6 against playoff teams all season (and both wins were against the Broncos). Los Angeles was good enough to make the playoffs, but a player of Herbert’s caliber should be much better.
Two starts is a bit harsh to make a judgment on Herbert in the playoffs, but the numbers and performance prove the narrative is just.
Overreaction or reality: Overreaction
Stroud deserves credit where its due, winning a playoff game for the second time in two seasons. The Texans were not expected to beat the Chargers after their good, but not great, regular season. Houston was supposed to be a Super Bowl contender in the AFC, yet limped into the playoffs as a No. 4 seed.
Then the Texans blew out the Chargers and advanced to the divisional round for the second consecutive year. This is a major accomplishment for Stroud in his sophomore season, as he finished 22 of 33 for 282 yards with a touchdown and an interception (90.7 rating) in the convincing victory.
Winning playoff games isn’t easy, as Stroud is 2-1 in his postseason career. Does this erase his sophomore slump? Not yet, as Stroud and the Texans could emerge as a threat in the AFC for years to come with a win over the Chiefs or Ravens next week. Houston could avenge its playoff loss to Baltimore from last year’s divisional round (if Houston plays Baltimore), or Stroud and the Texans could play well against the Chiefs to show they are ready to become serious contenders in the AFC.
Saturday’s win was impressive, but it’s time for the Texans to take that next step. Stroud certainly has the talent on offense to lead Houston to another playoff win.
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