Only one game remains in what has been the longest college football season in history, which began on August 24, 2024, when Georgia Tech upset then-No. 10 Florida State 24-21 Ireland. This Week 0 game set the tone for what would be a season full of surprises.
Now, nearly five months later, (7) Notre Dame and (8) Ohio State face off in the College Football Playoff National Championship in Atlanta. It’s hard to argue that both teams don’t deserve to be in this game. Notre Dame had to eliminate Indiana, Georgia and Penn State to get there; Ohio State destroyed Tennessee, Oregon and Texas.
They proved to be two of the best teams in the country all year, even if each of them had a “huh!?” loss on their CV. But only one can win the national title. A quick look at the spread suggests Ohio State is the heavy favorite to make it, but are the Buckeyes the best bet? Let’s break down the spread, the total and some props for Monday night’s matchup between two of the greatest programs in college football history.
National Championship: (7) Notre Dame vs. (8) Ohio State
Spread
One of the biggest factors in the expanded College Football Playoff is injuries. As teams are asked to play more games than ever, injuries are likely. After all, it’s a collision sport and the more physical contact a player experiences, the more likely they are to get injured. Notre Dame has had much worse injury luck than the Buckeyes in the postseason. Both teams suffered injuries during the regular season, with Ohio State’s offensive line being hit particularly hard and Notre Dame suffering losses throughout the roster.
The defeats did not stop for the Irish in the playoffs. Defensive tackle Rylie Mills was lost early, and two other offensive linemen were out in the win over Penn State, including left tackle Anthonie Knapp, who took over the starting job before the season started when the projected starter Charles Jagusah fell. Knapp has already been ruled out of the title match, but in a twist of irony, Jagusah could start in his place!
Either way, these injuries are just the latest in a long list for the Irish, making this match extremely difficult for them. Ohio State is perhaps the most talented team in the country, and outside of the loss to Michigan, the Buckeyes have been exceptional throughout the season. They also improved their play in the playoffs. Their defensive line has overwhelmed Tennessee, Oregon and Texas in back-to-back weeks. Although Tennessee’s OL is questionable, Oregon and Texas have been two of the strongest in the country. Just like Notre Dame.
But if Notre Dame’s offensive line is currently patchy, how confident can we be that we can hold up against an Ohio State front that crushes teams?
Additionally, even though the Irish defense has been one of the best in the country all year and the secondary has barely lost a step since losing stud Benjamin Morrison in mid-October, it’s safe to say that They haven’t faced an offense comparable to the Ohio State unit they’ll see in Atlanta.
Finally, Ohio State’s defense faced Tennessee (37.3 points per game in the regular season), Oregon (35.9 points per game) and Texas (33.6) in the first three rounds and held these teams to 52 total points (17.3 points per game). The Irish offense has been more prolific than the three (39.8 points per game), but it’s also a heavily run-oriented unit, and I’m not too optimistic about how that running game matches up to Ohio State’s defense (perhaps the best in the country) with a damaged offensive line. Notre Dame has overcome injuries throughout the season, but if you’re making a bet, it’s hard to bet on the Irish here based on the information available. Pick: Ohio State -8
Total
We know my spread pick, but the truth is I’m much more confident in this game on the total. And it’s almost entirely for the same reasons I love covering Ohio State! I just don’t know how many points we can reasonably expect the Notre Dame offense to score. It feels like the Irish will have to find points on defense or on special teams (which they have done exceptionally well this season) to give themselves a chance.
Still, I don’t know if Ohio State’s offense will automatically be able to light up Notre Dame’s defense. Yes, it’s screwed, and this could be the game in which Notre Dame’s defensive injuries finally have a significant negative impact on it. But they’ve been so good and opportunistic all season long that it seems crazy to think they can’t slow down this Ohio State unit.
The Irish aren’t that different from the Texas defense, and we’ve seen the Longhorns have a lot of success. Let’s not forget that they essentially took Jeremiah Smith out of the picture and one of Ohio State’s touchdowns came on defense. If you’re hoping for a high-scoring shootout to end the year, you’re probably going to be disappointed. Choose: Less than 46.5
Accessories
Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard (37.5 rushing yards): Leonard’s legs are a big part of what Notre Dame does offensively, and they will continue to be in this final game. After all, there’s no reason to leave anything in the tank. There is no tomorrow. The problem is, as we’ve seen, Notre Dame’s offensive line is broken, and that Ohio State defensive front has fallen apart as of late. While the Buckeyes have given up some yards to QBs on the ground this season, it’s important to remember in college that sacks are taken off the field on a QB’s ground. In their three playoff games, Ohio State’s defense has 16 sacks for a loss of 118 yards. Leonard only had 11 sacks in the regular season, but he took 6 in three playoff games. That helped him stay under that 37.5 yard total in two of three games (Indiana and Penn State). Choose: Under
Ohio State TE Gee Scott (17.5 receiving yards): There’s not much science about it, it’s quite simple. In the regular season, Gee Scott caught 16 passes for 150 yards. In three playoff games, he caught 10 passes for 99 yards and totaled at least 30 yards in all three games. He’s much more marginalized in the game plan now than before, and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case again in this matchup. Notre Dame’s secondary will focus its energy on Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka and Carnell Tate. That should leave Scott with some opportunities, and he probably won’t need more than two receptions for that. Choose: Done
