Hurricane Ian killed more than 150 people when it hit Florida in 2022. Here in Fort Myers, Florida, resident Stedi Scuderi looks at her apartment after it was inundated by floodwaters of the storm.
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Joe Raedle/Getty Images/Getty Images North America
This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be extremely active, putting tens of millions of Americans in the eastern half of the country at risk of flooding and damaging winds, forecasters at the National Hurricane Center warn. The increase in activity is partly caused by abnormally warm ocean temperatures driven by climate change.
Forecasters expect 17 to 25 storms to form in the Atlantic between June 1 and the end of November. At least eight of them are expected to be full-blown hurricanes, as opposed to weaker tropical storms. And 4 to 7 are expected to be major hurricanes, with winds powerful enough to uproot trees, destroy mobile homes and damage other buildings.
This is the most storms ever forecast for the Atlantic, and is well above the average of 14 storms that typically occur in a given hurricane season.
“This season is shaping up to be extraordinary,” says Rick Spinrad, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which houses the National Hurricane Center.
Hurricanes have caused widespread damage and killed hundreds of people in the United States in recent years, as climate change makes powerful storms more common. Four of the last five years have seen an above-average number of storms. In 2022, Hurricane Ian killed more than 150 people and caused more than $110 billion in damage when it hit Florida and flattened entire neighborhoods in and around the city of Fort Myers. In 2021, Hurricane Ida killed more than 100 people and caused an estimated $75 billion in damage from Louisiana to New England.
Even relatively small storms can cause catastrophic flooding, and the vast majority of hurricane-related deaths are due to flooding, storm surge and other water-related hazards, warns Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service . In 2018, Hurricane Florence flooded the Carolinas when it was only a Category 1 storm with relatively low wind speeds. Hurricane Harvey was similarly weak when it made landfall in the Houston area in 2017, causing massive flood damage.
People in the path of hurricanes need to be prepared and know where to evacuate and how to get there if a hurricane hits their home, forecasters and emergency officials stress.
“Think about what you need to do to protect yourself, your loved ones and even your pets if a hurricane is headed your way this summer,” says Eric Hooks, deputy administrator at FEMA, the Federal Emergency Management Agency . “Do you have any medications that require refrigeration?” Do you have a medical device that requires electricity? Do you have mobility issues that make evacuations more difficult? »
One reason for the large number of storms expected is that wind conditions in the Atlantic and Caribbean are expected to be conducive to hurricane formation. Wind conditions are difficult to predict, but in years when the weather phenomenon known as La Niña is underway, winds are generally more favorable for hurricane formation. Indeed, vertical winds, or wind shear, which disrupt hurricanes, are less common.
Although La Niña is not currently occurring, it is expected to occur by the end of summer, as peak hurricane season begins.
But the most important factor is the abnormally high water temperature in the tropical Atlantic, where hurricanes form. Warm water is the fuel of storms, because heat provides energy for the storm’s winds and warmer water provides more moisture, leading to large, powerful, rainy storms.
Climate change is the main driver of warming of the world’s oceans, including in the Atlantic. The oceans have absorbed the vast majority of the extra heat that humans have trapped on Earth by burning fossil fuels.
But the current record heat in the tropical Atlantic has also surprised and alarmed scientists. Temperatures are higher than would be expected due to climate change alone, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
“The warming we’ve seen in the North Atlantic over the past year has made people raise their eyebrows a little and say, ‘Huh! What’s going on there?’ “, says Schmidt.
Reductions in air pollution, recent volcanic eruptions and dust blowing from the Sahara Desert could all play a role, as tiny pollution particles, ash and dust all affect the amount of solar heat reflected back into the Earth. atmosphere before it reaches Earth. surface, he said. Scientists around the world are working to understand these numerous and complex effects on ocean temperatures.
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